Will Cyber Monday Be a Dud?
Cyber Monday, the big online shopping day the first Monday after Thanksgiving, has been a very accurate bellwether as to how strong the holiday shopping season is going to be. Over the last three years, the increase in sales over previous years’ Cyber Mondays has invariable been within two percentage points of the increase over the entire previous holiday season.
Last year, Cyber Monday was 21% bigger than the year before, with a total holiday online increase of 19%. The previous years had increases of 25% in 2005 and 26% in 2006, so this did represent a slight slowdown in online holiday shopping growth.
There are some good signs about web sales from this most recent Black Friday, the traditional big shopping day for retail brick-and-mortar stores. PayPal reported a jump in sales of 34% over last year’s Black Friday.
Online retailers may do better than expected as choosy shoppers use the web to source out the best prices this holiday season rather than hitting the stores and buying what’s in front of them. Economic downturns could theoretically hit the web less than other merchandise sources. But we will have to see.
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